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The Big Beautiful Bill will have substantial impact on immigration laborELP Mandate Kicks Off Driver ReductionsH.R. 1: Immigration Reforms Slash Driver Availability
Other administration policies could further limit drivers through immigration restrictions:
Since 2022, trucking has been mired in overcapacity, with excess trucks and soft demand driving spot rates to $2.28 per mile on July 1, 2025, per SONAR data, down from $3.53 per mile on January 9, 2022. Negative margins have crushed small carriers and strained giants like J.B. Hunt ($12 billion revenue). Losing 105,000 to 175,000 drivers would trigger a massive capacity crunch, ending this glut and fueling a recovery from The Great Freight Recession:
Risks include compliance costs and potential inflation from higher freight rates.
The Bottom Line
- Parole Program Termination: H.R. 1 orders the Department of Homeland Security to end parole programs (for example, for Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, Venezuelans, Ukrainians), a source of drivers. Ending these could contribute to losses within the broader EAD restrictions.
- EAD Restrictions: The bill blocks Employment Authorization Documents (EADs) for parolees, Temporary Protected Status holders, and asylum seekers unless legally mandated, potentially affecting 40,000 to 80,000 drivers, including parolees, who rely on EADs. Non-compliance risks fines up to $4,473 per worker.
- Asylum Barriers: A $50 asylum application fee and port-of-entry filing rules could deter 2,000 to 5,000 potential new drivers annually, limiting future hiring.
- Expedited Removal: Migrants caught within 100 miles of the border face immediate deportation, potentially deterring 8,000 to 15,000 drivers in border states, key for cross-border trade.
Other administration policies could further limit drivers through immigration restrictions:
- Non-Domiciled CDL Scrutiny: An FMCSA review of non-domiciled CDLs, driven by immigration compliance, may bench 5,000 to 10,000 foreign drivers, mainly from Mexico and Canada.
- Workplace EnforcementBorder Enforcement Focus:
Since 2022, trucking has been mired in overcapacity, with excess trucks and soft demand driving spot rates to $2.28 per mile on July 1, 2025, per SONAR data, down from $3.53 per mile on January 9, 2022. Negative margins have crushed small carriers and strained giants like J.B. Hunt ($12 billion revenue). Losing 105,000 to 175,000 drivers would trigger a massive capacity crunch, ending this glut and fueling a recovery from The Great Freight Recession:
- Rate Surge: The massive capacity crunch could make it hard to find capacity, leaving shippers and brokers to pay high truckload rates approaching COVID-era extremes, according to SONAR data.
- Pricing Leverage:
Risks include compliance costs and potential inflation from higher freight rates.
The Bottom Line
Topic copied from: FreightWave
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